BloombergNEF&#;s annual battery price survey finds a 14% drop from to
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New York, November 27, &#; Following unprecedented price increases in , battery prices are falling again this year. The price of lithium-ion battery packs has dropped 14% to a record low of $139/kWh, according to analysis by research provider BloombergNEF (BNEF). This was driven by raw material and component prices falling as production capacity increased across all parts of the battery value chain, while demand growth fell short of some industry expectations.
The analysis indicates that battery demand across electric vehicles and stationary energy storage is still on track to grow at a remarkable pace of 53% year-on-year, reaching 950 gigawatt-hours in . Despite this growth, major battery manufacturers reported lower utilization rates for their plants, while demand and revenue fell short of many companies&#; expectations. As a result, many EV and battery makers revisited their production targets, which in turn impacted battery prices. Lithium prices reached a high point at the end of , but fears that prices would remain high have largely subsided since then and prices are now falling again.
Evelina Stoikou, energy storage senior associate at BNEF and lead author of the report, said: &#;It is another year where battery prices closely followed raw material prices. In the many years that we&#;ve been doing this survey, falling prices have been driven by scale learnings and technological innovation, but that dynamic has changed. The drop in prices this year was attributed to significant growth in production capacity across the value chain in combination with weaker-than-expected demand.&#;
The figures represent an average across multiple battery end-uses, including different types of electric vehicles, buses and stationary storage projects. For battery electric vehicle (BEV) packs, prices were $128/kWh on a volume-weighted average basis in . At the cell level, average prices for BEVs were just $89/kWh. This indicates that on average, cells account for 78% of the total pack price. Over the last four years, the cell-to-pack cost ratio has risen from the traditional 70:30 split. This is partially due to changes to pack design, such as the introduction of cell-to-pack approaches, which have helped reduce costs.
On a regional basis, average battery pack prices were lowest in China, at $126/kWh. Packs in the US and Europe were 11% and 20% higher, respectively. Higher prices reflect the relative immaturity of these markets, higher production costs, lower volumes, and the diverse range of applications. There was also intense price competition domestically in China this year as battery manufacturers ramped up production capacity aiming to grab a share of the growing battery demand.
The industry continues to switch to the low-cost cathode chemistry known as lithium iron phosphate (LFP). These packs and cells had the lowest global weighted-average prices, at $130/kWh and $95/kWh, respectively. This is the first year that BNEF&#;s analysis found LFP average cell prices falling below $100/kWh. On average, LFP cells were 32% cheaper than lithium nickel manganese cobalt oxide (NMC) cells in .
Miners and metals traders surveyed expect prices for key battery metals like lithium, nickel and cobalt to ease further in . Given this, BNEF expects average battery pack prices to drop again next year, reaching $133/kWh (in real dollars). Technological innovation and manufacturing improvement should drive further declines in battery pack prices in the coming years, to $113/kWh in and $80/kWh in .
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Yayoi Sekine, head of energy storage at BNEF, said: &#;Battery prices have been on a rollercoaster over the past two years. Large markets like the US and Europe are building up their local cell manufacturing and we&#;re keenly watching how production incentives and tightening regulations on critical minerals will impact battery prices. These localization efforts will add a layer of complexity to how battery prices shape up regionally in coming years.&#;
Localization of battery manufacturing in regions such as the US and Europe could exert upward pressure on battery pack prices as the local industries scale up. Battery manufacturing in the US and Europe have higher costs due to higher energy, equipment, land and labor costs compared to Asia, where most batteries are currently produced. Local policies such as the $45/kWh production tax credit for cells and packs under the Inflation Reduction Act in the US could offset part of the cost, although the IRA&#;s impact on pricing is not yet clear.
Continued investment in R&D, manufacturing process improvements, and capacity expansion across the supply chain will help improve battery technology and reduce costs over the next decade. BloombergNEF expects next-generation technologies, such as silicon and lithium metal anodes, solid-state electrolytes, new cathode material, and new cell manufacturing processes to play an important role in enabling further price reductions.
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But the Covid years were a strange time, and the global lithium-ion battery industry seems to have shaken off the malaise. Global pack prices fell 14% this year to a record low of $139 per kilowatt-hour, according to BNEF. Lithium prices softened, components got cheaper, and massive new battery factories opened up. Demand for batteries grew an astonishing 53% this year, but even that fell short of some manufacturers&#; expectations, which pushed prices down further.
That $139 per kilowatt-hour figure is actually a blend of different batteries from several categories, like electric vehicles, stationary grid storage and buses. Electric vehicle packs, which have the most scale of the bunch, have already hit $128 per kilowatt-hour. This metric matters because batteries generate most of the cost of electric vehicles, so more affordable batteries mean more affordable EVs. And the cheaper grid storage gets, the easier it will be to shift renewable generation into the hours when the sun or wind aren&#;t available.
Just how cheap do battery packs need to get? At least for EVs, battery watchers have long described the $100-per-kilowatt-hour threshold as a mythic boundary past which cost-competitiveness would be assured. The U.S. Department of Energy staked out the further target of &#;$80 per kilowatt-hour manufactured cost for a battery pack by for a 300-mile range electric vehicle&#; in its Energy Storage Grand Challenge.
If prices continue to fall at roughly the pace they did this year, the industry will blow past $100 per kilowatt-hour in a handful of years &#; and DOE&#;s goal looks eminently achievable.
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